Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.549835 2.981183 3.459803 4.029788 4.689653 5.429123 6.320280
2025-12-14 1.819458 2.377182 3.063680 3.968765 5.128602 6.562935 8.469372
2025-12-21 1.394472 1.996869 2.804316 3.961051 5.570553 7.725134 10.822241
2025-12-28 1.208883 1.869014 2.818915 4.276656 6.447218 9.547583 14.297874
2026-01-04 1.015647 1.680358 2.698549 4.358306 6.980238 10.942291 17.357281
2026-01-11 0.868779 1.527574 2.594792 4.430687 7.487217 12.341735 20.593272
2026-01-18 0.743937 1.383425 2.473952 4.444599 7.886157 13.604640 23.761528
2026-01-25 0.637185 1.248584 2.342316 4.411228 8.187863 14.729868 26.828741
2026-02-01 0.520215 1.072443 2.107099 4.152459 8.048198 15.070873 28.569694
2026-02-08 0.439985 0.951275 1.951619 4.012183 8.095105 15.732196 30.945343
2026-02-15 0.385363 0.871283 1.861344 3.980633 8.337394 16.771130 34.135974
2026-02-22 0.357393 0.842087 1.867227 4.140441 8.973858 18.628072 39.113894
2026-03-01 0.313408 0.771960 1.781456 4.106168 9.230151 19.811767 42.995709
2026-03-08 0.274833 0.707393 1.698159 4.066369 9.474242 21.013423 47.099812
2026-03-15 0.244409 0.656420 1.636884 4.066027 9.804585 22.438620 51.867291
2026-03-22 0.237771 0.663395 1.711450 4.392419 10.920023 25.695808 61.037033
2026-03-29 0.217658 0.631557 1.687107 4.477141 11.483099 27.796854 67.882403
2026-04-05 0.199338 0.600912 1.660539 4.551745 12.031680 29.931420 75.070941
2026-04-12 0.180377 0.564694 1.613492 4.566133 12.432386 31.767640 81.782509
2026-04-19 0.161692 0.525495 1.551869 4.531921 12.703550 33.324337 88.009329
2026-04-26 0.136819 0.462470 1.413761 4.266342 12.327265 33.232579 90.124479
2026-05-03 0.119471 0.419212 1.324252 4.122364 12.257405 33.906152 94.273470
2026-05-10 0.107723 0.391603 1.275947 4.089982 12.493037 35.402911 100.761299